Washington's Eastern Sunset

The Decline of U.S. Power in Northeast Asia

Jason T. Shaplen and James Laney

From Foreign Affairs, November/December 2007

Summary:  After 60 years of U.S. domination, the balance of power in Northeast Asia is shifting. The United States is in relative decline, China is on the rise, and Japan and South Korea are in flux. To maintain U.S. power in the region, Washington must identify the trends shaping this transition and embrace new tools and regimes that broaden the United States' power base.

JASON T. SHAPLEN, a Policy Adviser at the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization from 1995 to 1999, is a Director at the nonpro?t organization Project Renewal. JAMES LANEY, U.S. Ambassador to South Korea from 1993 to 1997, is President Emeritus of Emory University.

Today, a dangerous dynamic is emerging in Northeast Asia. Three powerful, nationalist states with a history of hostility between them are simultaneously awakening from a period of quiescence and jockeying for power. For the past half century, the United States has assumed that its bilateral ties with Japan and South Korea were defining relationships on which it could build the entire architecture for its policies in Northeast Asia. In part because of these ties, it further assumed that it could largely set the agenda with China.

Both assumptions are no longer valid, even though the United States continues to exercise enormous influence in the region. Although U.S. ties with Japan and South Korea should be maintained and, where possible, strengthened, they will no longer provide a sufficient foundation for the United States' power in Northeast Asia on their own. China, meanwhile, has skillfully brought itself to the point where it can largely chart its own course.

Maintaining stability in the region is critical. If the transformation now under way spins out of control, it could threaten fundamental U.S. interests. As the United States develops a new strategy for Northeast Asia, it must find common ground and shared interests with the region's major players. To maximize its influence, it should embrace a broad platform of initiatives, including bilateral alliances, multilateral forums, free-trade agreements, and soft-power projects that build goodwill, and use all of these tools in various combinations depending on the issue and the players involved. In this respect, Washington is behind the curve -- and behind China. If it does not move quickly, it will find its stature in Northeast Asia greatly diminished at precisely the time when the region takes its place at the center of the world stage.