Washington's Eastern Sunset

The Decline of U.S. Power in Northeast Asia

Jason T. Shaplen and James Laney

From Foreign Affairs, November/December 2007

Summary:  After 60 years of U.S. domination, the balance of power in Northeast Asia is shifting. The United States is in relative decline, China is on the rise, and Japan and South Korea are in flux. To maintain U.S. power in the region, Washington must identify the trends shaping this transition and embrace new tools and regimes that broaden the United States' power base.

JASON T. SHAPLEN, a Policy Adviser at the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization from 1995 to 1999, is a Director at the nonpro?t organization Project Renewal. JAMES LANEY, U.S. Ambassador to South Korea from 1993 to 1997, is President Emeritus of Emory University.

GROUNDSWELL OF NATIONALISM

Economic and security matters are not the only factors affecting the balance of power in Northeast Asia. Changing demographics and rising nationalism also are.

The demographic changes in Japan are the most pronounced. Japan's population peaked last year at close to 128 million. The number of Japanese males is expected to decline from 62 million today to approximately 47 million in 2050, with fewer than 10 million between the ages of 20 and 40 by then. Unless it turns to conscription, Japan will find it difficult to field a military even the size of its force today -- already the smallest among the major powers in Northeast Asia. Notwithstanding the purchase of advanced military hardware, this reality could limit Tokyo's role in the region. Additionally, as Japan's population ages -- the percentage of the population aged 65 and above is projected to grow from 21 percent today to 36 percent in 2050 -- the country will have to expend considerable resources on caring for its elderly. This focus on domestic concerns could limit Tokyo's foreign policy agenda and regional ambitions.

In South Korea, it is a bulging younger generation that is changing the landscape. Eighty-three percent of South Korea's population today was born after the end of the Korean War, and 50 percent of it is 30 years old or younger. Whereas older generations of South Koreans remember the United States' role in the Korean War, the 30-and-under group does not. It views the United States as much as a bully as a friend and North Korea more as a cousin than an enemy.

China faces demographic challenges of a different nature. Its population, already 1.32 billion today, is not expected to peak until approximately 2030, which means that its economy must grow fast enough to absorb its expanding population. Absent a crisis, Beijing is not likely to act assertively in external affairs until it is confident that the country is on solid ground domestically. This turning point in China could come at the very same time that Japan's demographic trends cause Tokyo to focus inward -- and that could prove to be a tense period for Northeast Asia.

The demographic changes affecting the region's major players are coinciding with the rise of three forms of nationalism. The first, anti-Americanism, is particularly prevalent in China. According to a Pew Research Center poll released last June, only 34 percent of the Chinese surveyed said they held a positive view of the United States. The number of Japanese with a favorable view was higher but dropping: 61 percent, down from 77 percent in 2000. In South Korea, favorable views of the United States dropped as low as 35 percent, according to a BBC poll released in January, before improving to 58 percent, according to the June Pew poll, following progress in trade negotiations between the United States and South Korea and a narrowing of differences between the two countries over how to engage North Korea.

A second, more worrisome form of nationalism is the dislike that the major players in the region have for one another. According to an earlier Pew poll released last year, about 70 percent of the Japanese respondents viewed China unfavorably and thought it was an arrogant power, and 90 percent saw China's growing military power as a bad development. About 70 percent of the Chinese respondents, for their part, viewed Japan unfavorably and thought it was nationalist and arrogant. There is some positive news, however. Only 33 percent of the Chinese and Japanese respondents viewed the other group as an adversary, and both groups viewed South Koreans more positively than they viewed each other, with 64 percent of the Chinese and 56 percent of the Japanese surveyed holding a favorable impression of their neighbor.

The third form of nationalism is of a more traditional character. China, Japan, and South Korea are fiercely proud nations with long histories, and as their power grows, they are demanding the respect that befits their status. In South Korea, this nationalism is reflected in the government's decision to engage North Korea regardless of U.S. or Japanese opposition -- a decision driven in part by the deep sense of national identity that South Koreans share with their brethren to the north. In Japan, nationalism was visible in former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's refusal to fully acknowledge the part that the Japanese army played in coercing women into brothels during World War II and in Tokyo's recent decision to revise the country's textbooks to downplay Japan's role in the war. Abe's successor will likely be less outwardly right wing, but nationalism will continue to be an important factor in shaping Japan's domestic and foreign policies. In China, nationalism primarily manifests itself in Beijing's insistence that Taiwan not take any steps toward independence and in Beijing's seeming willingness to go to war over the issue. It was also on prominent display in 2005, when large riots erupted across China in response to Tokyo's efforts to secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, a move that would dilute China's proud status as the only Asian nation to hold one.

POWER TOOLS