Washington's Eastern Sunset

The Decline of U.S. Power in Northeast Asia

Jason T. Shaplen and James Laney

From Foreign Affairs, November/December 2007

Summary:  After 60 years of U.S. domination, the balance of power in Northeast Asia is shifting. The United States is in relative decline, China is on the rise, and Japan and South Korea are in flux. To maintain U.S. power in the region, Washington must identify the trends shaping this transition and embrace new tools and regimes that broaden the United States' power base.

JASON T. SHAPLEN, a Policy Adviser at the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization from 1995 to 1999, is a Director at the nonpro?t organization Project Renewal. JAMES LANEY, U.S. Ambassador to South Korea from 1993 to 1997, is President Emeritus of Emory University.

Even the two remaining restraints on Japan's military power -- the one-percent-of-GDP cap on defense spending and the prohibition on developing nuclear arms -- are on shaky ground. Tokyo has managed to stay under the spending cap by sleights of hand in how it reports its defense budget. And although Tokyo has had no plans to develop a nuclear weapon, it could do so quickly. A deterioration of the situation in North Korea could provide Japan with the rationale to join the nuclear club, a move that would be directed as much toward China as toward the Korean Peninsula.

Like Japan, South Korea is undergoing a fundamental realignment of its security relationship with the United States -- a transformation that has occurred at the same time as the two countries' alliance has become strained over diplomatic issues such as how to handle North Korea. As it did with its force in Japan, Washington is downsizing the U.S. force stationed in South Korea. Current estimates are for a drop from 39,000 in the 1990s to 25,000 troops by the end of 2008. Much of this drawdown has already occurred, and most U.S. troops have been redeployed from the demilitarized zone. Seoul and Washington have further agreed to move the U.S. force's headquarters from Seoul to bases south of the Han River, freeing up valuable land in the heart of the capital, which has seen property prices skyrocket in the past 20 years. When the relocation is complete, a total of 59 U.S. military facilities covering 38,000 acres -- two-thirds of the land granted to the U.S. military under the existing Status of Forces Agreement -- will have been handed back to South Korea. More important still is the joint decision to dismantle the current Combined Forces Command by April 2012, which will result in the United States' handing over wartime operational control of South Korean troops on the peninsula to Seoul. It is hoped that these moves will help tamp down rising anti-Americanism in South Korea, which has been palpable in recent years.

Despite this significant realignment of U.S. forces in South Korea, the first since the end of the Korean War, the United States' ability to project military power on the peninsula is unlikely to decrease. Technological advancements and strong interoperability mean that the United States and South Korea will be able to defend against an attack by North Korea with fewer U.S. troops stationed farther from the demilitarized zone. Furthermore, South Korea has a well-trained, highly disciplined, and well-equipped military of 700,000 troops. And the South Korean Ministry of National Defense has requested an average defense-budget increase of 11 percent per year until 2015 and nine percent from 2015 to 2020.

Notwithstanding the major shifts occurring in Japan and South Korea, the most significant change in the region's security structure is China's extensive military modernization. China is fundamentally transforming its military from a force designed to fight massive wars of attrition to a more modern, leaner force better suited to fighting shorter high-intensity wars. To this end, Beijing has downsized it from 4.2 million members in 1987 to 2.3 million today -- still more than twice the number of all Japanese, South Korean, and U.S. troops in the region. The Chinese military is also modernizing its equipment, principally with a view to a potential conflict with Taiwan but possibly to project force farther afield. Although it is still building a blue-water navy, China already boasts 72 destroyers and frigates, 50 medium-weight and heavy amphibious lift ships, 41 coastal missile patrol craft, five nuclear ballistic missile and attack submarines, and 53 diesel-electric attack submarines, many of which are considered to be the most silent in the world. (In October last year, a Chinese-built Song-class diesel-electric submarine tracked a U.S. battle group in the Pacific undetected until it surfaced within firing range of the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Kitty Hawk.) The Chinese air force has also been upgrading its equipment. The fleet now includes SU-30 advanced fighter bombers acquired from Russia, a version of the SU-27 it is developing under a coproduction deal with Moscow, and its premier fighter, the Chinese-produced fourth-generation F-10 aircraft. It also possesses midair refueling tankers that extend its reach throughout the region and beyond.

The biggest change in China's military posture concerns its missile capability. The Chinese armed forces have approximately 1,000 short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles and between 36 and 44 intercontinental ballistic missiles. The arsenal, which is expanding by more than 100 missiles per year, is primarily aimed at Taiwan but can target Japan as well. Moreover, Beijing's use of an antisatellite missile this past January to shoot down an old weather satellite in low orbit announced China's entry into the age of space warfare and its potential ability to disrupt satellites critical to U.S. military operations in Asia.

China's military modernization has not come cheap. Beijing has reported that it will spend $45 billion on defense this year, an increase of almost 18 percent from last year and the 19th consecutive double-digit percentage increase of China's annual defense budget. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency estimates that China's actual military spending could be as high as $125 billion, almost three times the official number.

The rise of China's military power, coupled with the transformations under way in Japan and South Korea, presents critical challenges for Washington. Although the United States remains the dominant military power in Northeast Asia -- China still lags far behind -- it is clearly no longer the only player. China can now affect U.S. operations in the Taiwan Strait in a way that it could not as recently as 1996. That year, defying Beijing's protests, the United States sent two carrier groups off the coast of Taiwan after China conducted a series of missile tests in waters within 35 miles of two major Taiwanese ports. Today, a U.S. response of this nature would be far more problematic -- and perhaps less likely.

On the other hand, the emerging security situation in Northeast Asia presents opportunities for cooperation. The U.S.-Japanese alliance is stronger than it has been in many years in part because Japan, faced with China's military modernization, is looking to strengthen its security ties with the United States as a countermeasure. The U.S.-South Korean security bond has also been reaffirmed, albeit on different terms. Seoul understands the need for U.S. troops to remain engaged in the region -- not only to assist in the event of a confrontation with North Korea but also as a hedge against China's ascendance. And once the new foundations of the U.S.-Japanese and U.S.-South Korean relationships are in place, they are unlikely to change for the next several decades.

If anything, it is Washington that must demonstrate its intention to stay fully engaged in the region. Downsizing U.S. forces could create the perception that the United States is a wounded giant stretched so thin by its commitments elsewhere that it is failing to pay sufficient attention to the Pacific. Indeed, U.S. military leaders in the region emphatically voice this concern to anyone who will listen.