Turkey Rediscovers the Middle East

F. Stephen Larrabee

From Foreign Affairs, July/August 2007

Summary:  In a departure from its traditional foreign policy, Turkey is now becoming an important player in the Middle East. Turkey's growing concern over Kurdish nationalism has brought Ankara closer to the governments of Iran and Syria, which also contend with restive Kurds at home. Although troubling, this shift could be an opportunity for Washington and its allies to use Turkey as a bridge to the Middle East.

F. Stephen Larrabee holds the Corporate Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation.

Energy has been another major driver behind the warming of Iranian-Turkish relations. Iran is the second-largest supplier of natural gas to Turkey (after Russia). In July 1996, shortly after taking office, Turkish Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan concluded a $23 billion deal for the delivery of natural gas from Iran over 25 years. In February 2007, under Prime Minister Erdogan, Turkey and Iran agreed to seal two new energy deals: one allowing the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (known as tpao) to explore oil and natural gas in Iran and another for the transfer of gas from Turkmenistan to Turkey (and on to Europe) through a pipeline in Iran. (Turkey's pipeline deal with Iran is at odds with Washington's preference for avoiding Iran by transporting the gas through the Caspian Sea, and, if finalized, it could add a new element of friction to U.S.-Turkish relations.)

Iran's nuclear ambitions, however, are a source of serious concern in Ankara. A nuclear-armed Iran could have a destabilizing impact on the Persian Gulf region and force Turkey to take countermeasures for its own security. If Iran refuses to comply with the demands of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ankara will have essentially three options: expand its cooperation on missile defense with the United States and Israel; beef up its conventional military capabilities, especially medium-range missiles; or develop its own nuclear capability. Turkey would consider developing the nuclear option only as a last resort -- if, say, its relations with the United States declined, Ankara no longer saw nato's guarantees as credible, and the eu rejected Turkey's membership. A serious effort by Iran to develop a nuclear capability could undercut its rapprochement with Turkey and drive Ankara to strengthen its ties with the West, especially the United States.

Turkey's relations with Syria have also considerably improved in the last decade. Strained in the 1980s and early 1990s, they reached a crisis point in October 1998, when Turkey threatened to invade Syria if Damascus did not cease supporting the pkk. In the face of Turkey's overwhelming military superiority, Damascus backed down, expelling the pkk leader Öcalan, to whom it had given safe haven, and closing pkk training camps. Damascus' shift opened the way for a gradual improvement in relations, which has gained considerable momentum since then. This rapprochement was underscored by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's visit to Ankara in January 2005 -- the first trip by a Syrian president to Turkey since Syria's independence in 1946.

This change in Syrian-Turkish relations has largely been driven by Damascus' growing concern over the threat of Kurdish nationalism. The Kurdish minority in Syria, like those in Turkey and Iran, has become increasingly restless lately. Assad's government has been concerned that the emergence of an economically robust Kurdish government in northern Iraq could stimulate pressures for economic and political improvements among Syria's own Kurdish population.

Turkey's closer ties to Syria have created strains with Washington. These tensions were not so strong under the Clinton administration, which maintained a dialogue with Damascus despite disapproving of many of its policies. However, they have intensified under the Bush administration, which has sought to isolate Syria. Strains were particularly visible in the spring of 2005, when U.S. officials failed to convince Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer to cancel his visit to Damascus. Sezer, with Erdogan's backing, stood firm -- a show of Turkish independence that caused considerable consternation in Washington. However, recent efforts by the United States to initiate a dialogue with Syria -- a move long favored by Ankara -- should help to reduce these strains and bring Washington's and Ankara's approaches to Syria into closer alignment.

A DELICATE BALANCE

Ankara's policy toward Israel and the Palestinians has also undergone a shift. Turkey had maintained a close relationship with Israel since 1996, especially in the defense and intelligence areas. Cooperation had benefits for both sides: it gave Israel a way of breaking out of its regional isolation and a means of putting pressure on Syria, and it gave Turkey new avenues for obtaining weapons and advanced technology at a time when it faced increasing restrictions on weapons procurement from the United States and Europe.

But more recently, under the akp's leadership, Turkey's outlook toward Israel has begun to change, and Ankara has begun to adopt a more active pro-Palestinian policy. Erdogan has been openly critical of Israeli policy in the West Bank and Gaza, calling it an act of "state terror." At the same time, he has sought to establish closer ties to the Palestinian leadership. A few weeks after the elections in the Palestinian territories in January 2006, he hosted in Ankara a high-ranking Hamas delegation led by Khaled Mashaal. Erdogan was hoping that the visit would highlight Turkey's ability to play a larger diplomatic role in the Middle East. But it was arranged it without consulting Washington and Jerusalem and irritated both governments, which wanted to isolate Hamas until it met a series of specific conditions, including acceptance of Israel's right to exist.

Likewise, Turkey adopted an independent position at odds with Israeli policy during last summer's crisis in Lebanon. Erdogan sharply condemned the Israeli attacks, and in several major Turkish cities there were large-scale protests and burnings of the Israeli flag. Turkish nongovernmental organizations also condemned Israel's policies in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.