In Search of Hugo Chávez

Michael Shifter

From Foreign Affairs, May/June 2006

Summary:  The debate over Hugo Chávez has been dominated by opposing caricatures -- a polarization that has thwarted a sound policy response. The Venezuelan president has an autocratic streak, no viable development model, and unsettling oil-funded aspirations to hemispheric leadership. But Washington and its allies should ''confront'' him indirectly: by proving they have better ideas.

MICHAEL SHIFTER is Vice President for Policy at the Inter-American Dialogue and Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.

But for now, Chávez's influence will probably continue. And countering that influence would require recognizing that it originates not only in Chávez's ability to shape Venezuela's and the region's agenda, but also in the failure of other governments to do so. His legitimate and well-expressed concern for social questions strikes a chord in Latin America, especially in view of the rather dismal condition of education and health care in many countries in the region. Against such a backdrop of unattended needs, Chávez's appeal is hardly a mystery.

Offsetting Chávez's influence would require confronting the acute social problems that Chávez has shed light on. His diagnosis of social ills may be on the mark, and his intentions may be sincere. But the recipe he is offering is little more than snake oil. Chávez has been unable to devise a sustainable model to address social problems effectively. Even if some of Venezuela's poorest citizens are better off today, Chávez's record has been disappointing given the opportunity presented by the oil windfall. More important, Chavismo comes with an unacceptably high cost.

Washington should not refrain from discreetly registering its opposition to some of Chávez's more blatant violations of the rule of law and the democratic process. If completely unchecked, Chávez's program will have damaging results both domestically and regionally. But the United States has little leverage in shaping Venezuela's internal political dynamics -- and, given the Bush administration's lack of popularity in the region as a whole, little ability to "confront" Chávez directly. Instead, a U.S. strategy must be built around efforts to rally the support of other Latin American governments to address the conditions that gave rise to Chávez in the first place. Rather than expending so much energy denouncing the presence of Cuban doctors and teachers in Venezuelan slums -- a program that, although not a transferable model, brings benefits to some of Venezuela's poor and is popular -- Washington should start proving that it has better ideas.

Although Latin America's elected leaders and governments ultimately bear the responsibility for devising and carrying out effective social policies for their citizens, Washington can be a more helpful partner. Initiatives on the scale of the 1960s Alliance for Progress are difficult to contemplate in the current economic and political environment. Still, Washington must demonstrate much more concern than it recently has toward Latin American priorities, such as migration, infrastructure, and social development. The urgent task facing elected Latin American governments today is to show not only that they allow citizens to express themselves freely, but also that they are capable of bringing tangible improvements to their citizens' daily lives.

Chávez's clear shortcomings and the internal schisms of his regime are likely to be accentuated over time. If Washington can give its regional policy a more constructive focus -- and if other Latin American governments prove more committed to carrying out badly needed reforms -- then the defects of Chávez's model will become increasingly apparent. Having learned lessons from their bitter experience, Venezuelans might then have a chance to move toward the political reconciliation and true development that have long eluded them.