Furthering Democracy in Mexico

Enrique Krauze

From Foreign Affairs, January/February 2006

Summary:  As it approaches its first presidential election in the post-PRI era, Mexico is at a crossroads: it could either consolidate democracy and proceed with needed reforms or fall back into a familiar state of crisis. Which way it goes will depend above all on the candidates of the three major political parties, who must rise above their short-term interests to further the nation's progress toward democratic stability.

ENRIQUE KRAUZE is Editor in Chief of Letras Libres and the author of Mexico: Biography of Power.

At the moment, however, a PRD victory is likely. Such a result would be entirely understandable. For the majority of its citizens, Mexico is still a very poor country -- a shameful reality that has given the left considerable appeal. Whatever the weaknesses of certain of his policy proposals, López Obrador owes his political advantage to his seriousness in accepting and confronting this burden -- a concern for the poor that gives him a connection to some of the core ideals of the Mexican Revolution. A victory for the left would also be understandable as a reaction by the public to the real and perceived failures of the Fox government. After 71 years of PRI rule and six years of fumbling by the PAN, voters may well think that it is someone else's turn now. Many Mexicans also share a general disenchantment, increasingly common across Latin America, with free-market reforms and the perceived neglect of social problems under such reform programs.

In many ways, a victory for a modern left-wing movement -- much like those that govern Chile and Spain -- would be the best possible result for Mexico in 2006. Regrettably, it is highly unlikely that the PRD can become such a party. The PRD has favored retaining complete state dominance of the oil and electrical industries and has been suspicious of free markets, labor reforms, foreign investment, and the process of globalization -- a body of preconceptions that cannot be rigidly adhered to by a modern party of the left. (Perhaps it is only the day-to-day exercise of power that can force a left-wing movement to adjust its ideological schema to reality.) Meanwhile, many members of the Mexican left have shown ambivalence or outright hostility toward many of the most positive aspects of liberal democracy: limits on the extent of government power, especially to prevent absolute power from being concentrated in the hands of a single office but also to prevent the manipulation of power through messianic demagoguery; a full commitment to the autonomy of the judiciary and the division of powers, to freedom of expression, and to complete financial openness and accountability in government; a respect for autonomous institutions such as the central bank; and a distaste for violence, especially when reforms can be accomplished peacefully. These are all necessary principles in an open society, and some of López Obrador's past behavior (showing a propensity toward the rhetoric, mass mobilization, and class polarization of traditional Latin American populism) suggests that he may not respect them. A failure to honor these principles at the national level could put the process of democracy itself at risk.

If the PRD does win, and especially if the victory is by a large margin, it must put aside any temptation to revive the one-party state. As president, López Obrador would face a trial by fire. If he honors the principles of an open society, of legality and individual rights, he will have every right to implement his social and economic projects, so long as he operates in the realm of reality rather than abstract ideology. But if López Obrador -- or whoever else manages to win the presidency -- denies these principles, then Mexico will have lost yet another opportunity to consolidate its democracy.