The Future of Palestine

Khalil Shikaki

From Foreign Affairs, November/December 2004

Summary:  The current turmoil in the Gaza Strip represents the most serious challenge to Yasir Arafat's authority in decades. Israel's planned disengagement from Gaza brought to a boil long-simmering tensions among Palestinian factions demanding a change in the status quo. Holding national elections before the pullout may be the only way to avoid chaos and save any chance at Middle East peace.

Khalil Shikaki is Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah.

Finally, elections will institutionalize the principles of democracy, accountability, and good governance in the Palestinian political system. Elections should be based on the March 2003 constitutional amendments that shifted authority from the president to the cabinet and the prime minister. After the elections strip the old guard of much of its power, Arafat and his cohort will no longer be able to resist these fundamental changes. The Palestinian middle class, devastated during the intifada, will gain influence and counterbalance the government's authority. No single leader will again possess the absolute, concentrated power that Arafat now commands.

Polls show that elections, if held today, would result in a PLC dominated by three forces. Mainstream Fatah nationalists would win up to 40 percent of the seats (they hold 75 percent today); Hamas and the PIJ, which did not participate in the previous Palestinian elections in 1996, would earn, at most, a third of the votes; and independent nationalists and moderate Islamists would pull in more than a quarter of the ballots. The elections would also allow the Fatah young guard to wrest control of the party and the PA from the old guard peacefully and legitimately. No longer needing weapons or attacks on Israel to bolster their status, the young nationalists would be willing to disarm.

The mainstream nationalists, composed mostly of the young guard, would form the government and appoint the prime minister, but they would have to partner with independent nationalists and moderate Islamists. Although Hamas and the PIJ would almost certainly refuse to join the new government for fear of being forced to consent officially to agreements with Israel, they would still have to abide by PA decisions, even as part of the parliamentary opposition. Regardless, having won their battle against the old guard, young nationalists would lose the incentive to foster closer relations with Islamist extremists. Instead, the young guard would have to focus on co-opting or neutralizing the independents, who, by threatening to join the radical Islamists, would be able to check the power of Fatah. Arafat would be marginalized, and the new prime minister would have to worry more about his young guard colleagues, his coalition partners, and the strong parliamentary opposition than about the whims and urges of the president. In other words, the Palestinians would finally have a democracy.

For all the hope that elections offer, conditions in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip are not now conducive to holding them. On a very basic level, the ongoing violence would make it difficult for voters to reach the ballot box. Palestinian factions must thus reach an understanding on a complete cease-fire during the election period. Perhaps harder to cure, however, is the inherent distrust that the public holds for the government. Although surveys indicate that 95 percent of Palestinians want national elections, many people failed to register to vote when the process began in September 2004. There are many possible explanations for this poor initial turnout-voters waiting until the last minute to register, for example-but one thing is certain: most Palestinians have little faith in the political process. Arafat has promised elections in the past-as he does now-only to postpone them time and again. Why would he now agree to something that would limit his power?

It is true that Arafat and the older nationalists in Fatah stand to lose the most-by ceding control to both the young guard and the Islamists. But Arafat also stands to gain domestic and international legitimacy from the elections, even if his real authority is constrained. This might not be enough to force his hand, considering that he could also be deprived of a loyal majority in the PLC. But the United States and Israel could compel Arafat to give in to the reformists' demands. By removing the obstacles he has used to postpone elections in the past-checkpoints and sieges that inhibit Palestinian movement, for example-and reversing their own opposition to elections, the United States and Israel would leave Arafat little choice in the matter. The outcry of the Palestinian public and the young guard would pressure him into acquiescing, or else risk losing what little remains of his credibility.

Even if Arafat is compelled to organize elections, many hurdles will remain. Islamist groups such as Hamas boycotted the 1996 elections, and they could do so again. Like Fatah's old guard, the Islamist militants would have to give up a lot to participate in the political system: they would have to abandon the guns and bombs that fueled the intifada-and Islamist popularity-in the first place, and a segment of their constituency may not accept a cease-fire with Israel and could even break off from the group. But Islamist leaders also know that their decision not to recognize the first Palestinian elections in 1996 was a tremendous blunder: they lost all ability to influence the national agenda for the following four years-until the intifada began. Indeed, since its establishment in 1987 and with the sole exception of 1996, Hamas has participated in all types of elections in Palestinian civil society.

In fact, Hamas seems to have already accepted the trade-off of arms and militia for parliamentary seats. Hamas is fully participating in the current debate on a revised election law and has presented papers to the Palestinian Central Election Commission. Capitalizing on popular support, Hamas stands to gain a significant number of seats in the PLC. If, on the other hand, Hamas refuses to run, it could very well lose some of its popular base and face newly empowered public institutions that will force it to disband its militia. Of course, once Hamas is a part of the PA, it must be forced to adjust to the rules of the game. True, Islamist hard-liners will be able to undermine the peace process by working within the political system-just as Israeli ultraconservatives do in their government-but they will still have to obey the PA's laws. To speed up the difficult integration process, the government will need to take several steps. First and foremost, the Palestinian security services and the PA bureaucracy will have to absorb Hamas' militia until the time comes, as part of the wider implementation of the road map, to collect all illegal arms and begin the decommissioning process. No doubt, disarming will be hard for the Islamists. But further democratic reform and municipal elections, which will allow Hamas to solidify its popular support, will sweeten the bitter pill.

COLLATERAL ADVANTAGE

Although these elections hold obvious advantages for the Palestinian people, they will also benefit Israel and the Quartet. Israel and the United States oppose elections for fear that Arafat will be reelected, but both nations have more to gain than to lose. A Palestinian cease-fire during elections will help the Jewish state prepare for its eventual withdrawal without seeming as if it were fleeing under fire. Most important, if Israel, the United States, and the rest of the international community truly want Palestinian democracy and a credible partner in the Middle East peace process, elections will help them get both.