The Future of Palestine

Khalil Shikaki

From Foreign Affairs, November/December 2004

Summary:  The current turmoil in the Gaza Strip represents the most serious challenge to Yasir Arafat's authority in decades. Israel's planned disengagement from Gaza brought to a boil long-simmering tensions among Palestinian factions demanding a change in the status quo. Holding national elections before the pullout may be the only way to avoid chaos and save any chance at Middle East peace.

Khalil Shikaki is Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah.

But although July's unrest in Gaza never aimed at removing Arafat from power, it is highly doubtful that the concessions he has offered will satisfy the young guard, which will insist on removing many of Arafat's loyalists from power. Elections would accomplish this, but the young nationalists-all too familiar with Arafat's pattern of opportunism and scheming-do not believe he will hold them and are prepared to use violence instead. The young guard does have the weapons and the soldiers to end Arafat's, and the PA's, hold on Gaza. If the young nationalists took Gaza by force, they would probably rule with a coalition of Islamists. Even if successful, however, the young guard itself remains divided and leaderless, with little clue as to how to make peace or build a state.

Sharon has refused to negotiate his disengagement plan with Arafat's PA, preferring to implement it unilaterally. But if the withdrawal is not coordinated with a Palestinian counterpart, the pullout will almost certainly be partial and attacks against Israel will most likely continue. Palestinian power struggles will intensify and the PA will crumble, with warlords and Islamists coexisting within vaguely specified domains. Gaza will become a breeding ground for radicalism of the worst kind-leading Israel to directly reoccupy the strip with no future exit plan.

In an attempt to avert this scenario, some Israeli politicians have hinted that young guard leaders, such as Mohammad Dahlan, may become their favored liaisons to the Palestinian people. Yet although Dahlan and others command widespread support among young Fatah members in the Gaza Strip, they lack stature, credibility, and legitimacy at the national level. True, Dahlan has reached out to reformist factions of Fatah in the West Bank, forming a partnership with Marwan Barghouti, the most famous young guard leader. But the latter, jailed by Israel for life, is unlikely to back Dahlan in defiance of Arafat.

This dearth of popular, nationwide support will make it impossible for Dahlan and other young guard Gazans to negotiate legitimately with Israel or to deliver on promises of post-disengagement security and stability, unless they form an alliance with Hamas and other Islamists. Not surprisingly, Hamas views the disengagement plan as its own victory, earned by the blood of its fighters, but it may be willing to discuss an agreement: its declared motto, "partners in blood, partners in decision-making," indicates an eagerness to share power with the nationalists, and a pact with the young guard holds more potential for Hamas than a partnership with Arafat, who is unlikely ever to share genuine power.

If Israel chooses to deal with such an alliance between young nationalists and Islamists-and it may have no choice-it may gain some quiet temporarily, but this will not be sustainable. Israel, which will continue to occupy most of the West Bank and all of Arab East Jerusalem, will eventually face a much stronger foe across the Gaza border, and violence-both in the Jewish state and in the Palestinian territories-will return. In addition to increased terrorist activity, the Islamists will grow stronger and will test the nationalists at the first opportunity. Such infighting could signal the beginning of civil war between the young guard, the old guard, and the Islamists. The groups would use violence against Israel as a legitimating tool, and cast Gaza-only elections-the one chance for calm-as a betrayal of the Palestinians' larger goal of forging a state in all of the occupied territories.

At this point, Palestinians do not have many options. Arafat and the old guard have failed to reform the political system and implement their security obligations, and they are not trusted by Israel or the United States. The young guard and the Islamists will not give up the arms that gained them prominence, moreover, unless they are given a viable political alternative to force. But so far, genuine political change has been forsaken in favor of stopgap deals that avoid restructuring the PA. If this pattern continues, an independent Gaza Strip will be condemned to violence and intensified conflict with Israel. Palestinians and Israelis-not to mention the United States' already flagging credibility in the region-will suffer.

ELECTIVE SURGERY

Only holding national elections now, before the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, can help Palestinians and Israelis prevent this impending disaster. The road map, which all the relevant parties accept, calls for such elections. And by facilitating them, the United States and the rest of the Quartet can foster a stable, democratic Palestine, in addition to more peaceful Israeli-Palestinian relations. Of course, there is no guaranteed solution to the problems facing Palestinians as they anticipate their first chance at true self-rule, even if only on a small scale. But elections, if conducted honestly and efficiently, promise the best chance to end the anarchy and paralysis that afflict the Palestinian political system.

Holding elections in the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967 will achieve three principal objectives. First, it will restore the PA's legitimacy with the Palestinian people, allowing the government to take political risks for the sake of national security. The PA's comprehensive crackdown on Islamist militants in March 1996 could not have taken place had the Palestinian leadership not been validated two months earlier by the first national elections. Second, elections will begin to phase out the old guard peacefully. Even if-or more accurately, when-Arafat is reelected as president, his power will be significantly constrained. This opening will provide Hamas and the young guard with the opportunity to capitalize on the popularity they gained during the intifada and translate it into parliamentary seats. With these forces integrated into the political system, the new PA will finally have the strength to crack down on vigilante violence and collect illegal arms.