Breakdown in the Andes

Michael Shifter

From Foreign Affairs, September/October 2004

Summary:  The southern Andes, long known for social volatility and economic disarray, is on the verge of chaos. This need not be cause for fatalism, however. By reengaging with the region, Washington could help turn the political crises plaguing Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia into opportunities for change.

Michael Shifter is Vice President for Policy at the Inter-American Dialogue and Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.

FIRE ON THE MOUNTAIN

Twice in recent months, the historically troubled but chronically neglected nations of the "southern crescent" of the Andes-Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia-have made international headlines. First, in April, an angry mob set on the mayor of Ilave, a small city in Peru's impoverished highlands, and lynched him for corruption. Two months later, the same fate befell the mayor of a town in the Bolivian high plains: he was publicly lynched and his body set on fire, also for alleged misuse of public funds.

With a drug-fueled armed conflict raging in Colombia and a political crisis plaguing oil-rich Venezuela, developments in the southern Andes fall under the radar of most U.S. policymakers and outside observers. The recent autos-da-fé, however, should serve as reminders of the region's turbulent past and warnings of a possible return to violence and instability in the near future. Washington has responded to the prospect of renewed turbulence with a mix of indifference and fatalism: indifference because Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia are considered largely unimportant to U.S. interests; fatalism because all too many view them as hopeless anyway.

And indeed, there is much to worry about in all three cases-broken nations, with imminent political crises and other significant problems in need of urgent attention. They are all still struggling to become coherent, well-functioning states. The social, ethnic, and geographic divides that predate their founding continue to widen, and recent changes have created a profound and unsustainable gulf between the political sphere and the rest of society.

The clearest sign of political instability is the desperation of the region's leaders. In the past five years, public outrage-stemming from some combination of unacceptable corruption, faltering economic reforms, and deepening social distress, and inflamed by opposition demagogues-has unseated a president in each of the three nations. Today, the political survival of Peru's Alejandro Toledo, Ecuador's Lucio Gutiérrez, and Bolivia's Carlos Mesa is similarly in doubt. All three lack any prior experience in elected office, and public mistrust of political leaders and institutions has made governing exceedingly difficult. Toledo and Gutiérrez, in particular, took office with considerable popularity and strong anticorruption platforms. Their approval has since sunk to single digits in public opinion polls, and now, dogged by corruption charges themselves, they appear uncertain about how to go forward. Their destroyed credibility offers a biting commentary on the region's bleak political landscape.

Other developments in the Andes, however, offer a measure of hope for progress toward more open and democratic politics. The tremors in the region have led previously excluded groups, with newfound access to information and technology, to press for a real role in national politics. Especially in Bolivia and Ecuador, indigenous populations are increasingly visible and politically mobilized. Their heightened expectations and demands-entirely legitimate and long overdue-carry profound democratizing potential.

But this promise will be frustrated unless political leaders in these nations are prepared to reform fossilized institutions, including political parties and justice systems-and unless Washington supports such efforts, helping committed reformers and working in concert with other outside actors. Otherwise, potentially positive trends will put unmanageable strains on brittle governance structures. Should they erupt, the social volcanoes in Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia will spread dislocation, lawlessness, and insecurity in a continent already on edge.

THE REAL LIFE OF ALEJANDRO TOLEDO

Peruvians have long pondered a question posed by Mario Vargas Llosa in his 1969 novel Conversation in the Cathedral: "When, precisely, did Peru mess up?" Even before last April's lynching in Ilave dramatically revealed the country's volatility, a crisis had been simmering for some time. Yet only when it exploded into such brutality did Peru's political class take note. The Ilave incident has come to symbolize the country's institutional fragility and democratic deficit.