China's New Diplomacy

Evan S. Medeiros and M. Taylor Fravel

From Foreign Affairs, November/December 2003

Summary:  The recent crisis over North Korea's nuclear weapons has had at least one unexpected aspect: the crucial -- and highly effective -- intervention of Beijing. China's steady diplomacy is a sign of how much things have changed in the country, which has long avoided most international affairs. Recently, China has begun to embrace regional and global institutions it once shunned and take on the responsibilities that come with great-power status. Just what the results of Beijing's new sophistication will be remains to be seen; but Asia, and the world, will never be the same.

Evan S. Medeiros is an Associate Political Scientist at the Rand Corporation. M. Taylor Fravel is a Fellow at Harvard University's Olin Institute for Strategic Studies.

As the SARS epidemic demonstrated, China's political system is still opaque and can threaten the economies and livelihoods of its neighbors. Beijing's early bungling of the crisis quickly undermined goodwill toward China in the Asia-Pacific region. Focusing on internal stability, the country's leaders initially ignored the disease, facilitating its spread by withholding information. Fortunately, the crisis has left these leaders newly sensitized to their country's tight integration with the international community.

Despite such setbacks, China's new diplomacy is sure to continue, and it will present American and Asian policymakers with both opportunities and challenges. China's active participation in international institutions creates more chances to elicit cooperation on key issues. Moreover, China now brings more resources and influence to the table. As the nation's stake in the international community expands and it associates itself with great-power interests, China is gradually becoming more involved in efforts to combat global security threats, both traditional and nontraditional. Beijing's lead role in addressing the Korean nuclear crisis is one such example. American leaders should encourage the expansion of such cooperation to other security problems, in order to manage mutual threat perceptions and build trust on both sides. Such efforts will be critical to stabilizing a bilateral relationship most noted for its ups and downs.

Americans should always remember, however, that even as China becomes more engaged, it is also growing more adept at using its foreign policy and foreign relations to serve Chinese interests. Today's China is certainly smarter and more sophisticated -- but not necessarily kinder or gentler. Beijing's new skills may at times frustrate Washington's objectives, as China is becoming better positioned to undermine, and potentially challenge, the policies of the United States and its allies. Thus China's ability to consistently outmaneuver the United States at the un Human Rights Commission in recent years should serve as a wake-up call. American policymakers and diplomats should prepare to deal with a more effective China in a range of international institutions. After all, it is on these institutions that Chinese diplomats increasingly focus their efforts and attention.

While Beijing currently seems prepared to work within international rules and norms to pursue its interests, China is dissatisfied with some aspects of this system, such as U.S. preponderance and especially the status of Taiwan. Washington should remain aware of these frustrations and shape its ties with Beijing and its neighbors in a way that recognizes the reality of China's expanding regional role. China is rapidly emerging as the engine of growth in Asia, which affords it increasing influence and leverage. Although the United States remains the strategic incumbent there, Washington needs to pay consistent attention to managing relations with regional friends and allies if it hopes to maintain its pull.

A longer-term task for the United States and the entire international community is to ensure that China's new diplomacy and emerging perspectives on global politics are consistent with stability and security. Outright competition with China would needlessly expend U.S. resources and frustrate the emergence of a sustainable balance of power in Asia. China's increasing participation in international institutions, paradoxically enough, offers a new means with which to influence the country's perceptions and the pursuit of its interests and creates leverage for other states who participate in these organizations.

For the next two decades, China's primary focus will remain internal, on its numerous domestic problems. After all, the continued economic and political modernization of the world's most populous country is no small task. China's top political leaders have deemed the next 20 years a strategic opportunity (zhanlue jiyuqi) to develop their country. But an opening exists for the international community as well, and U.S. policymakers should use it wisely, to address the challenges and opportunities created by China's rise.