New Battle Stations?

Kurt M. Campbell & Celeste Johnson Ward

From Foreign Affairs, September/October 2003

Summary:  The Pentagon is planning the greatest change in the U.S. overseas military posture in 50 years. Small, light forward bases in new countries are to replace large, heavy deployments in Germany, Japan, and South Korea. But such changes may have unintended political consequences, ones Washington has yet to seriously consider.

Kurt M. Campbell is Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Director of the Aspen Strategy Group. Celeste Johnson Ward is a Fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS.

The Bush administration's contemplated military redesign will be the first true overhaul of the United States' global military posture since it was gradually built up during the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. Washington's current forward positions are undergirded by an extremely complex set of legal, political, operational, and practical arrangements, some of which have evolved over decades and exist in delicate balance with each other and with various other aspects of American foreign policy. The Bush administration is now proposing to shift virtually every aspect of this armed presence in a sort of military "big bang." This is a bold and audacious proposition, especially given that there has not been a major push for such an overhaul either at home or abroad. Indeed, most Democrats and Republicans who follow defense-related issues, as well as most U.S. allies, have essentially supported maintaining the current posture while tinkering on the margins. So the stakes for this endeavor are high, and it is important that what is being proposed gets a thorough and reflective hearing.

Perhaps there is no good way to engineer changes of this magnitude without stirring up considerable controversy. But unlike during the Cold War, when most U.S. friends and allies shared a relatively common view about the dangers posed by Soviet adventurism, currently no international consensus exists about what the pressing threats are or how to deal with them. Major shifts now are therefore likely to be particularly unsettling and contentious.

All the changes outlined by the Pentagon have commonsensical explanations in terms of operational dynamics and military efficiencies, and the U.S. government should indeed gradually implement many of them over the years to come. But as it does so, it must take greater care than it has so far to avoid collateral damage to long-standing arrangements and relationships that have served the country well for decades and might continue to do so for decades to come. It makes no sense to gain marginal benefits for possible future operations at the cost of undermining close existing alliances or causing important countries to question their security ties to the United States -- or, even worse, to consider other options, such as new military expenditures, new regional relationships, or the development of nuclear weapons. Borrowing from Clausewitz, military basing often involves politics by other means. The failure by Washington to understand that truth or to take it into account would be a grave mistake and could have lasting repercussions for the United States and the world.