New Battle Stations?

Kurt M. Campbell & Celeste Johnson Ward

From Foreign Affairs, September/October 2003

Summary:  The Pentagon is planning the greatest change in the U.S. overseas military posture in 50 years. Small, light forward bases in new countries are to replace large, heavy deployments in Germany, Japan, and South Korea. But such changes may have unintended political consequences, ones Washington has yet to seriously consider.

Kurt M. Campbell is Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Director of the Aspen Strategy Group. Celeste Johnson Ward is a Fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS.

The new posture would also represent a different kind of relationship with host states. In the past, U.S. forces were based in other countries in order to protect them from invasion or hostile action by others. The host and the United States shared the same risks and the same foe. Washington's new vision, however, hearkens back to U.S. policies of a century ago, when many host states served largely as staging points and "coaling stations" for operations elsewhere. Although it is still possible to argue that, under the proposed changes, the U.S. presence in foreign countries will serve local interests, and that fighting terrorism and containing the spread of WMD will increase host countries' security, the link (at least for many foreign publics) may appear less clear, and this could pose problems down the road.

There are also practical considerations associated with the proposed deployments. Moving forces around is not a simple process and requires the negotiation of status of forces agreements with host nations. These agreements provide extraordinary legal guarantees to U.S. soldiers, essentially giving them local "get out of jail free" cards -- as a result, as one might imagine, they prove very unpopular in many countries. Negotiating even modest revisions of existing agreements can sometimes take years, and getting a raft of new ones arranged in short order will be difficult.

A widely distributed U.S. global presence, finally, may lead to a widely distributed set of U.S. commitments and engagements. At the same time that the new posture would reflect and be designed to deal with a particular set of existing or foreseeable threats, it could also by itself generate new and unforeseen problems that would have to be dealt with in turn. Thus the proposed changes could increase the likelihood that the United States gets dragged into future local and regional conflicts, simply because its forces will already be on the ground.

DUE PROCESS

Given the sensitivity of the issues involved, several steps should be taken before and during the rollout of any new military posture. The first is ensuring that everything about the move is vetted carefully by all major relevant actors. Attention to process will not solve every problem, but it will certainly affect the receptivity of other countries to any changes. How allies such as South Korea and Japan respond, for example, will depend not just on the substance of the modifications themselves, but also on how well the United States consults with their governments, takes their reservations into account, and allays their various anxieties. In fact, rather than being seen as a routine obligation or a nuisance, consultations over the posture changes should be seen as an important opportunity to solidify, strengthen, and redefine those alliances for the future. In Europe, similarly, countries are likely to be more receptive to changes if they take place in the context of a revitalized NATO and a reinvestment in the Atlantic alliance by the United States, rather than being seen as an expression of impatience or unconcern with "old Europe."

During the consultations, the United States should explain the purpose and rationale behind its actions, making it clear that the changes are global and not driven by any particular regional dynamic. Because of the timing, international observers will be prone to view the changes in the context of recent events, particularly the lead-up to and conduct of the war in Iraq. Without guidance from the United States, they will put their own spin on what is happening, which will not necessarily be accurate and could adversely affect other U.S. interests.

U.S. officials should also underscore repeatedly the fact that the United States has no intention of stepping back from its traditional security commitments. Getting the signals right will be critical to preempting unnecessary negative consequences. Despite much evidence to the contrary, some allies continue to worry about U.S. commitment and staying power and may read the new plans as an indicator of what the most powerful nation on earth thinks is important. They need to be assured that any moves are being driven by military concerns and do not reflect a significant change in diplomatic priorities.

The changes, moreover, should not be rushed or hyped, and they should be explained as evolutionary movements rather than radical departures. Particularly in delicate situations such as on the Korean Peninsula, abruptness is unlikely to pay dividends. For that reason, in fact, the United States should consider delaying the movement of the Second Infantry Division out of the DMZ. It is true that there may never be an ideal time for such a change. But with the threat from North Korea unabated and perhaps even heightened recently, now would be an especially inopportune moment. However the move might increase the effectiveness of any military response to North Korean provocations, it would be a difficult sell in the region. Politics would inevitably overshadow strategic realities, and the result could be greater resentment of the United States in South Korea, greater concern in Japan, and greater anxiety throughout the region. When moves are ultimately made -- as they should be -- they should be done delicately and slowly, and with a close eye on regional perceptions and concerns.