How to Build a Democratic Iraq

Adeed I. Dawisha and Karen Dawisha

From Foreign Affairs, May/June 2003

Summary:  What follows the war in Iraq will be at least as important as the war itself. Nurturing democracy there after Saddam won't be easy. But it may not be impossible either. Iraq has several assets doing for it, including an educated middle class and a history of political pluralism under an earlier monarchy.

Adeed I. Dawisha is Professor of Political Science at Miami University, Ohio. His latest book is Arab Nationalism in the Twentieth Century: From Triumph to Despair. Karen Dawisha is Walter E. Havighurst Professor of Russian Studies at Miami University, Ohio. Her books include the four volume Democratization and Authoritarianism in Post-Communist Societies.

Splitting the executive between a weak president and a prime minister has a better chance of sustaining democracy in Iraq. This division would allow political dueling to take place within the democratic tent, and not in the Iraqi street. A prime minister chosen by, and dependent on maintaining, a majority in the lower house of a bicameral parliament would serve as an institutional buttress against presidential abuse and would keep the affairs of the state running. Meanwhile, a charismatic president, chosen by the upper house (itself composed of the elected representatives of the 18 federal units, as well as notables and professionals) would function as the symbolic figurehead of the Iraqi nation.

Another option that might work well for Iraq is restoring the Hashemite monarchy under strict constitutional limits. Because the Hashemites share the faith of Iraq's elite Sunni minority, restoration would reassure the Sunnis that the inevitable change in the balance of power will not lead to their marginalization. The monarchy also has the advantage of being well connected with tradition, which would make it a stabilizing force during a time of uncertainty and a barrier against extremism. A constitutional monarchy could become the symbol of Iraq's unity and civility and act as the custodian of its positive traditional values. A monarchy would also help reassure Saudi Arabia and the other Persian Gulf states that they would no longer face the kind of threat Republican Iraq has long posed.

Two obvious candidates for the throne would be Sherif Ali bin al-Hussein of Iraq or Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan. Both are cousins of Iraq's last king, Faisal II. Sherif Ali, a British-trained economist, is the current head of the Constitutional Monarchy Movement, an Iraqi opposition group. Prince Hassan, a graduate of Oxford University and the younger brother of Jordan's late King Hussein, has been a long-time proponent of greater democracy in the Arab world.

Of course, some Iraqis and outsiders will oppose a restoration of the kingdom on the grounds that monarchies are a thing of the past -- regressive and outdated. It is important to remember, however, that monarchies can actually help safeguard democracy. After all, when Spain restored its monarchy in 1975 after 40 years of Francisco Franco's rigid authoritarianism, the king served as a powerful guarantor of stability and progress. Moreover, in the Arab world today it is not the presidential systems but the monarchies -- Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Qatar -- that are leading the way in democratic reform. Whatever the theoretical benefits of reinstating a limited constitutional monarchy in Iraq, however, it should be done only with popular support, as demonstrated through a referendum.

GETTING READY TO CHOOSE

Talk of referendums leads naturally to the next question about postwar Iraq: If the country opts for a weak presidential system with a split executive, how should the president be chosen? By direct or indirect elections?

There would be advantages to both. Direct elections, in which the entire population votes for president, theoretically encourage rival candidates to position themselves at the center of the political debate, in order to maximize their chances of winning as much support as possible. At the same time, however, democratic theorists from the ancient Greeks through de Tocqueville have observed that direct elections favor populist and antidemocratic candidates. It is because of this fear that presidents in several new central European democracies are chosen by parliament.

In Iraq, where some 60 percent of the population is Shi`ite, direct elections could be expected to shift the political balance away from the minority (but traditionally dominant) Sunnis. Although such an outcome should not in and of itself be thwarted, direct elections should be avoided lest they allow the election of a Shi`ite president who unfairly favors the south or promotes an increased role for religion in state affairs. Selecting the president through indirect elections -- for example, making it a choice of the upper house of parliament, perhaps by a super-majority -- would, on the other hand, make the president beholden to, and dependent on, the success of another democratically chosen and regionally diverse body.

Prime ministers generally are leaders of the parliamentary majority in the lower house. The president and prime minister thus have different power bases and may come from different parties. During periods of so-called cohabitation, gridlock might increase, but so would the need for consensus politics. In countries where dire economic conditions demand strong and swift government, such a system can seem less than ideal. But democratic Iraq's major problem will not be economic hardship; the real threat will come from the concentration of great wealth in one industry (oil production) that is located primarily in the Shi`ite south. Getting all Iraqis to share this resource for the common good will be difficult, but institutions that diffuse power will have the best chance of success.

Turning to parliamentary elections, Iraq will face two key issues: how to draw the boundaries of its electoral districts, and how many members should be elected from each. During the monarchical period, Iraq was divided into 14 provinces, each of which was subdivided into electoral districts of 20,000 voters. These districts each elected a single member, and the complaint was often voiced that tribal leaders predominated at the expense of urban populations. Iraq is vastly more urbanized today, however. Thus it seems best to draw electoral boundaries in a way that will give greater influence to city dwellers. Doing so will also serve to strengthen secularist tendencies and decrease the possibility of rural and tribal domination of the lower house.