Iran's Crumbling Revolution

Jahangir Amuzegar

From Foreign Affairs, January/February 2003

Article preview: first 500 of 4,517 words total.

Summary:  Nearly a quarter-century after the revolution, economic failure and a bankrupt ideology have discredited the Islamic Republic. Despite the attention paid to a clash between "reformers" and "conservatives" in the government, the real story in Iran is the growing discontent among the generation born after 1979. This "Third Force" will eventually topple the regime, and the United States should just watch and wait.

Jahangir Amuzegar is an international economic consultant. He was Finance Minister and Economic Ambassador in Iran's pre-1979 government.

AMERICA AND THE AYATOLLAHS

Western reporters tend to describe the current situation in Iran in alarmist terms, suggesting that the people are near revolt, the regime faces collapse, and the country is prone to political upheaval. Even if these assessments are premature or extreme, the relentless confrontations between the "reformist" Majles (national assembly) and the "conservative" Council of Guardians (which has veto power over Majles legislation and vets all candidates for elective office) augur a turbulent political future. The 1979 revolution faces a profound challenge from a new and disenchanted generation, widely known in Iran as "the Third Force." For this broad swath of society born after 1979, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's promise of a just and free Islamic society has proven a sham. After nearly a quarter-century of theocratic rule, Iran is now by all accounts politically repressed, economically troubled, and socially restless. And the ruling clerical oligarchy lacks any effective solutions for these ills.

The changes wrought by this turmoil call for a new and nuanced U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic -- particularly if the United States goes to war against Iraq. Since the high-profile inclusion of Iran in President George W. Bush's "axis of evil," proposals to deal with that "rogue" state have run the gamut from a preemptive military strike to the pursuit of diplomatic engagement. Between these two extremes, suggestions have included covert action to destabilize the ruling regime, assistance to internal and external opposition groups, financial aid for foreign-based Iranian media, and a call for international condemnation of the ayatollahs. To know what shape U.S. policy should take, however, it is necessary to understand how Iran arrived at its current parlous state.

THE BEST OF ENEMIES

After the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran in November 1979 by a radical group calling themselves "Students Following the Imam Line," the United States suspended diplomatic relations with Iran. But this "absence" of diplomatic ties has always been somewhat unreal. Mutual demonization has gone hand in hand with participation by the two countries in venues such as the claims tribunal set up in The Hague to arbitrate U.S.-Iran financial disputes. Formal encounters and even cooperation have taken place in the context of multilateral conferences on the future of Afghanistan and on antidrug efforts. The United States has maintained unilateral sanctions on trade and investment with Iran but also carried out clandestine arms-for-hostages deals. There are even reports of joint efforts to combat al Qaeda terrorists and Iraqi oil smugglers, as well as other forms of bilateral cooperation. But neither party has been willing to publicize these supposed contacts.

In fact, despite occasional signs of rapprochement in the last quarter-century, the relationship has remained stalled. Informal polls in both countries have shown no strong domestic opposition to resuming ties, but the influence of powerful hard-line minorities in each country and a number of outstanding disputes that push domestic political buttons have held back all efforts at conciliation. At the same time, Tehran's perception of Washington's ...

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