The Future of AIDS

Nicholas Eberstadt

From Foreign Affairs, November/December 2002

Summary:  In the decades ahead, the center of the global HIV/AIDS pandemic is set to shift from Africa to Eurasia. The death toll in that region's three pivotal countries--Russia, India, and China--could be staggering. This will assuredly be a humanitarian tragedy, but it will be much more than that. The disease will alter the economic potential of the region's major states and the global balance of power. Moscow, New Delhi, and Beijing could take steps to mitigate the disaster--but so far they have not.

Nicholas Eberstadt holds the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute and is Senior Adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research. This essay draws on a longer study prepared with the assistance of Lisa Howie; for more detailed results see www.AEI.org/scholars/eberstadt.htm.

Table 4: Population in 2025

Without HIV Mild Epidemic Intermediate Epidemic Severe Epidemic

China 1.46 billion 1.42 billion 1.39 billion 1.37 billion

India 1.38 billion 1.34 billion 1.30 billion 1.26 billion

Russia 0.14 billion 0.13 billion 0.12 billion 0.12 billion

Table 5: Working-Age Population in 2025

Without HIV Mild Epidemic Intermediate Epidemic Severe Epidemic

China 1.0 billion 981 million 963 million 947 million

India 932 million 910 million 879 million 854 million

Russia 89 million 86 million 81 million 78 million