Trouble in the Kingdom

Eric Rouleau

From Foreign Affairs, July/August 2002

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Summary:  Saudi Arabia is ailing. Despite the efforts of reformers in the royal family, the kingdom is struggling with economic problems, social unrest, and popular outrage over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Meanwhile, radical Islam and anti-Americanism continue to simmer -- and could soon reach a dangerous boil.

Eric Rouleau, a writer, was France's Ambassador to Tunisia from 1985 to 1986 and to Turkey from 1988 to 1992.

AT SEA IN THE DESERT

Crown Prince Abdullah cut an impressive figure when he arrived in Crawford, Texas, in late April to meet with President George W. Bush. The man who has ruled Saudi Arabia ever since his half brother, King Fahd, suffered a stroke in 1995, Abdullah managed to present himself as both firm and conciliatory, establishing a productive dialogue with the American president and improving a relationship that had been badly frayed by September 11 and the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. While pressuring Bush to take a more active role in the Arab-Israeli peace process, Abdullah also mollified the Americans by promising to keep Saudi oil flowing and by promoting his own groundbreaking solution to the conflict in the Middle East.

Abdullah's performance abroad, however, obscured the fact that the prince's power at home -- and indeed, the health of his nation -- has eroded significantly. A major crisis is now brewing in Saudi Arabia, and September's terrorist attacks -- committed by 19 hijackers, 15 of whom were Saudi citizens -- both highlighted and, in a way, aggravated the tensions in the kingdom. The intense violence in the Middle East has made matters even worse. The deterioration of the Arab-Israeli situation has started to threaten the very stability of the Saudi state in a way many Westerners, particularly Americans, had not anticipated. In particular, outsiders have underestimated the anger roused in the Saudi population by the suffering of the Palestinian people -- and the fact that this suffering is blamed less on Israel than on its American protector. Given the privileged nature of relations between Washington and Riyadh, this anger has also started to focus on the House of Saud itself.

Although Westerners may not have anticipated the current crisis, it came as no surprise to Abdullah. A month before September 11, the crown prince had already warned Bush about the rising danger, asking him to intervene in the Middle East to help bring about a "balanced" settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. According to his close aides, however, Abdullah's early oral and written messages to Bush were treated with skepticism in Washington, leading the prince, in an unprecedented gesture, to refuse an invitation to visit the White House.

It was his despair at Washington's refusal to get involved that led the crown prince to launch a bold peace initiative of his own in February, promising full normalization of relations between Israel and the entire Arab world in exchange for the implementation of the UN?s resolutions on Palestine. The peace deal -- extended directly "to the government and the people of Israel" -- was clearer and more precise than any that had been formulated since the creation of the Jewish state. Coming at a time when most Arabs were outraged by the Israeli army's conduct in the occupied territories, Abdullah's offer was a risky move, capable of triggering violent protests at home and likely to be rejected by Israel. Yet Abdullah backed the proposal enthusiastically, even ...

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