The Pressures on Pakistan

Anatol Lieven

From Foreign Affairs, January/February 2002

Summary:  Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has supported Washington's war on terror so far. But he rules an impoverished and increasingly radical population and faces a powerful enemy next door. If the economic crisis continues, his government could fall, bringing Islamists to power and giving them control over nuclear weapons.

Anatol Lieven is a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Fortunately, the risk of Islamist rebellion within the army, although real, is very far from imminent. Pakistan's military remains highly disciplined and obedient, content with its privileges and prestige. The army's stability has three roots. The first is the enormous proportion of Pakistan's resources that the military is allowed to consume. These resources come not just from budgetary expenditures, but also in the form of state-owned land and property that has been transferred over the years to the army's Fauji Foundation. The foundation is the biggest corporation in the country and generates profits of around $30 million a year. It serves, among other things, as a financial support mechanism for retired soldiers.

The other explanations for the army's loyalty are the warrior traditions of northern Pakistan and the modern frame given these traditions by the British Indian army, from which the Pakistani military is descended. The army maintained its British officer culture until the early 1970s, but this ethos could not endure forever in a service drawn from a poor Muslim country. Some form of Islamization of the army, including its upper ranks, was inevitable. And that Islamization was further encouraged when, starting in 1990, the U.S. military broke off its training and consultation programs in response to Pakistan's attempt to build a nuclear weapon. These American programs should now be resumed as a matter of urgency.

It remains unclear how far the Islamization of the military has translated into support for the Taliban, terrorism, or radical anti-Americanism. The role that the army, and specifically the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), played in helping build up the Taliban is now a matter of record. So too is the way in which the army has helped extremist groups fighting in Kashmir. On the other hand, the Musharraf regime and the military high command had been growing increasingly exasperated with the Taliban for at least a year before September 11. A key moment occurred in March 2001, when the Taliban destroyed several huge, pre-Islamic statues in defiance of a direct personal appeal from Musharraf. One official exploded, "Friendly Afghan regime? What friendly Afghan regime? They never listened to a word we said!"

Much of the army, like most of society, had some sympathy for the Taliban as it faced the might of the United States. This sympathy did not mean, however, that the military was ever prepared to commit national suicide for the Taliban's sake. Furthermore, of all the ISI chiefs over the past decade, only one, Lieutenant General Javed Nasir, can fairly be described as a radical Islamist. Some of the others have had certain leanings in this direction, but their Afghan strategy was chiefly dictated by their perception -- mistaken and exaggerated as it may have been -- of Pakistan's strategic interests, of the anti-Pakistani attitudes of the Northern Alliance, and of the hostile intentions of India and Russia.

THE INDIA OBSESSION

Pakistan's central preoccupation, as far as the army is concerned, remains not Afghanistan but Kashmir. Pakistan's struggle with India over control of Kashmir began within weeks of the two nations' independence in August 1947. Over the decades since, the battle over this province has become a key part of Pakistan's army, and even its state, ideology.

The conflict reached a new peak in the winter of 1998-99, when Sharif was prime minister and Musharraf his army chief of staff. Pakistan launched a militarily brilliant but politically reckless operation in Kashmir, helping militants (possibly including Pakistani troops, and certainly backed by Pakistani artillery and logistics support) occupy heights on the Indian side of the de facto border near Kargil, overlooking the main Indian line of communication. The Pakistani-backed fighters held their own against Indian counterattacks, but Pakistan was eventually forced to withdraw under heavy pressure from the international community, led by the United States.

The result of this diplomatic debacle was that, even before September 11, the Pakistani military and civilian elite had begun to moderate their attitudes on Kashmir. This new attitude was soon displayed in a new openness to bilateral talks with India. The Pakistani elite also seems finally to have woken up to the domestic threat created by all the radical mujahideen the country has supported. Sartaj Aziz, a former foreign and finance minister, explained recently, "For every ten [militants] who are trained here to fight in Kashmir, one goes and the rest stay in Pakistan to cause trouble." And retired Lieutenant General Talat Masood observed, "Thanks to the U.S. antiterrorism campaign, the mujahideen fighting in Kashmir will have to be reined in. The state has to have a monopoly of armed force. Above all, our possession of nuclear weapons makes this essential, because if there is internal instability here, there will be attempts at intense international scrutiny of us."

Not that resolving the Kashmir issue will be easy. India will not give up its possession of most of the province under any terms. Pakistan's long-running insistence, therefore, that India comply with U.N. resolutions calling for a referendum on independence in Kashmir is a non-starter. Only when Pakistan accepts some degree of Indian sovereignty will it become possible to work toward a settlement involving partial demilitarization, open borders, and the restoration of partial autonomy to Indian Kashmir. A settlement might also encompass some territorial adjustments between the two Kashmirs and, as in Northern Ireland, new cross-border institutions embracing both territories. But as part of this process, Pakistan would have to stop giving military help to the Kashmiri insurgents.

None of this will happen, however, if Pakistan is expected to make the first move alone. India too has to make important concessions for a peace process to begin. These sacrifices should include recognition of the international community's role in seeking a settlement and of the centrality of Kashmir to the Indo-Pakistani relationship. India will also have to address the legitimate grievances of Kashmir's Muslims, their fear of the Indian security services, and their frustration at New Delhi's unconstitutional meddling in local affairs. Although U.S. leverage over India is slight, the United States should try to encourage this process.