The Pressures on Pakistan

Anatol Lieven

From Foreign Affairs, January/February 2002

Summary:  Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has supported Washington's war on terror so far. But he rules an impoverished and increasingly radical population and faces a powerful enemy next door. If the economic crisis continues, his government could fall, bringing Islamists to power and giving them control over nuclear weapons.

Anatol Lieven is a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Meanwhile, the precarious state of the economy makes that danger even more acute. Annual GDP growth in the 1990s averaged only 4 percent -- not nearly high enough above the population growth rate of around 2.5 percent to produce real improvements in living standards. To make matters worse, in the same period India's annual growth rate averaged 5.6 percent. Now, with a global economic downturn, probable political chaos next door, and the necessary austerity measures all at hand, improving Pakistanis' lives is going to be even more difficult -- if not impossible. Indeed, Pakistan will be lucky if it can avoid further serious economic deterioration in the coming years. If, after the failure of the civilian parties, the army regime also fails to improve conditions, the Islamists may come to look like the last ones standing. Policies ostensibly based on the Koran and the shari`a may emerge by default, the only options not already tried and failed.

ROBBER BARONS

Pakistan's most successful period, at least in economic terms, was the reign of General Ayub Khan from 1958 to 1969. By contrast, its most disastrous time came during the civilian rule of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the father of Benazir Bhutto. During this period in the 1970s, Bhutto's socialist-inspired nationalization of various industries nullified much of the country's previous gains. The military regime that followed, however -- that of General Muhammed Zia-ul-Haq, who ruled from 1977 to 1988 -- was little better. Zia squandered the most favorable economic circumstances Pakistan has ever enjoyed: the oil boom, which at its height produced some $25 billion in remittances from Pakistanis working in the Persian Gulf states; and the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, during which U.S. and other Western aid brought in billions more.

Over the years, Pakistan's military has been responsible for diverting a huge proportion of the country's resources to support itself. The military has always argued that such huge subsidies are essential for defense against India. But this massive spending has left disastrously little for infrastructure, education, and other fundamentals of economic development. Over the past ten years, military spending has averaged more than 30 percent of the budget, and most of the rest has been spent on debt servicing.

Two other causes often cited for Pakistan's repeated economic failures over the past 20 years are "feudalism" and corruption. Neither is an adequate explanation, however, and both are misleading. The prominence of hereditary landowners in Pakistani politics is striking, especially when compared with the way the middle classes and wealthy peasants dominate politics in India and Bangladesh. Pakistan's "nobles" (only some of whom hold formal titles) owe their influence partly to their wealth but also, and more importantly, to their positions as leaders of tribes, clans, families, or hereditary religious organizations. Although this "feudal" elite is drawn from a much narrower range of families than are the political classes of northern India, it functions politically in much the same way, protecting followers through physical force or by influencing the civil service, the police, and the judiciary.

Over the past 20 years, the effect of the violent traditions in this society has been intensified by the impact of the wars in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Automatic weapons have become readily available, heroin smuggling has increased, and armed radical Islamist militias have grown drastically. In this environment, political and even business figures have had to provide physical protection to their supporters, encouraging the feudalization of what might otherwise have been a relatively progressive urban capitalist class.

In both Pakistan and much of India, it is the overwhelming supremacy of loyalty to blood over trust in the state or the law that lies at the root of corruption and a host of other social ills. Kinship links are the fundamental building block of society and thus cannot help but dominate politics as well. In such a social and political environment, modernization is devilishly difficult. But without progressive reforms, the power of the Islamists will almost certainly grow in the long term, despite the defeat they have suffered in Afghanistan.

RADICALS IN THE RANKS

Both of Pakistan's Islamist parties are now seeking to extend their influence over the military. The Jamaat-e-Islami hopes to inspire a traditional, orderly military coup by a collective of the top generals. The JUI, on the other hand, appears to be taking the more radical course of fomenting mutiny in the lower ranks.

A coup from the top, if it were only partially inspired by Islamists, would not necessarily pose a dire threat to U.S. interests. By contrast, a mutiny from below would pose appalling risks, especially pertaining to control over Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Even a radical regime would be unlikely to ensure its own annihilation by using such weapons, but the danger of nuclear material finding its way into the hands of terrorists would become very great indeed.