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July/August 2001
Vol 80, Number 4 << Previous: May/June 2001 | Next: Sept/Oct 2001 >> FIND FOREIGN AFFAIRS ON A NEWSSTAND NEAR YOU
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Crisis in the Taiwan Strait?
Kurt M. Campbell and Derek J. Mitchell
The simmering dispute over the status of Taiwan may soon explode in violence. The Chinese regime sees Taiwan's recent democratization as an implicit challenge to its own authority and legitimacy and thus continues to threaten and intimidate the island. Meanwhile, Taiwan has procured advanced defensive weapons from the United States. Growing tensions across the Taiwan Strait, along with the lack of military and diplomatic communication, make conflict -- possibly involving the United States -- increasingly likely. To avoid such an outcome, Washington should actively facilitate cross-strait dialogue and deter provocations by either side. But it must do so soon, for both China and Taiwan are growing impatient.
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China's Coming Transformation
George Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham
Over the past decade, China's leaders have pursued rapid economic reform while stifling political change. The result today is a rigid state that is unable to cope with an increasingly organized, complex, and robust society. China's next generation of leaders, set to take office in 2002-3, will likely respond to this dilemma by accelerating political reform -- unless a new cold war with the United States intervenes.
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Follow the Money
William F. Wechsler
Financial abuses -- money laundering, tax evasion, and rogue banking -- have been around for as long as there have been finances to abuse. But globalization is creating new challenges as borders dissolve. New technologies enable tiny, remote countries to make quick money through their underregulated banking systems. Recent multilateral initiatives have started to attack the problem. But if the Bush administration fails to follow through on reforms, the entire effort could fall apart.
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Iran in the Balance
Puneet Talwar
Anxious to turn back a string of recent victories by President Mohammad Khatami and his reformist allies, Iran's conservatives have embarked on a campaign of bloody repression. As the two camps battle for control of the Islamic Republic, the proper moves from Washington just might tip the balance. Modest engagement can help Iran's moderates help themselves.
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Fool's Gold in Alaska
Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins
Alaskan politicians have used every oil-price rise since 1973 to push for drilling beneath the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. But even putting environmental questions aside, refuge oil is unnecessary, insecure, economically risky, and a distraction from the real energy debate. Market solutions that enhance efficiency can provide secure, safe, and clean energy services at much lower cost.
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The Pitfalls of Universal Jurisdiction
Henry A. Kissinger
The passions aroused by the attempt to extradite Augusto Pinochet highlight the many unresolved issues in the movement to enforce global justice. Widespread agreement that human rights violations and crimes against humanity must be prosecuted has hindered active consideration of the proper role of international courts. Universal jurisdiction risks creating universal tyranny -- that of judges.
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The Missile Defense Debate
John Newhouse
The Bush administration claims national missile defense can protect the United States from long-range missiles fired by rogue states. But that threat is trivial, and Washington's unilateralist approach to missile defense will only anger China and Russia while alienating U.S. allies.
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Indonesia Unraveling?
David Rohde
The devolution of power in post-Suharto Indonesia has empowered corrupt local authorities and brought long-simmering religious and ethnic tensions to the fore. The country lacks a credible executive and impartial military to quell the violence. In fact, the authorities may be exacerbating the tensions instead of helping resolve them.
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Compromised Command
Richard K. Betts
In Waging Modern War, General Wesley Clark describes how NATO bested Serbia -- just barely -- in the organization's first-ever shooting war. With confused priorities, a reluctant military, and overweening lawyers, the alliance was scarcely up to the task.
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The Conscience of a Conservative: The Dangers of Dogmatism in U.S. Foreign Policy
Michael Mandelbaum
Henry Kissinger's Does America Need a Foreign Policy? warns that Washington could become an overly dogmatic superpower. For the new century he recommends returning to the oldest foreign policy of all: maintaining regional balances of power.
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Classic Diplomacy in the Information Age
Stanley Hoffmann
France's foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine, is often charged with being anti-American. As his new book shows, however, his brand of realist diplomacy is more subtle and pragmatic than his American critics see it.
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Weapons Without Purpose? Nuclear Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era
Robert Jervis
Under the Bush administration, U.S. nuclear strategy is shifting from deterrence to defense. In The Price of Dominance, Jan Lodal argues that this is a mistake and explains why multilateral cooperation is crucial for a sensible post-Cold War nuclear strategy.
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The Real Crisis Over the Atlantic
Dominique Moisi
Antony Blinken has missed a fundamental transformation at work. America and Europe may still share values and interests, but Europe and the world have changed profoundly since the Cold War. The transatlantic relationship must change, too.
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