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January/February 2000
Vol 79, Number 1 << Previous: Nov/Dec 1999 | Next: Mar/Apr 2000 >> FIND FOREIGN AFFAIRS ON A NEWSSTAND NEAR YOU
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The Shocks of a World of Cheap Oil
Amy Myers Jaffe and Robert A. Manning
As oil flirts with prices that call to mind the shocks of the 1970s, the usual Cassandras have been warning of dwindling oil supplies and sky-high prices. But the danger is precisely the opposite. The next two decades will witness a prolonged surplus of oil, which will tamp prices down. This world of cheap oil will have serious political reverberations. Without rising oil revenues, such key states as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Mexico, and Colombia will face worsening crises at home. The same is true in spades for Central Asia, where Washington's current wrongheaded policies could drag it into crises that make the Balkans look like a pregame warm-up. The world should worry less about a scarcity of oil than about a glut.
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The Need for Nuclear Power
Richard Rhodes and Denis Beller
The world needs more energy, and there is one clean, efficient, and safe way to get it: nuclear power. As the global appetite for electricity grows, atomic power -- which scarcely pollutes, generates relatively little solid waste, and is far more efficient than the alternatives -- should be embraced. A worldwide effort to develop and share nuclear technology is in all our interests.
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Campaign 2000: Promoting the National Interest
Condoleezza Rice
With no Soviet threat, America has found it exceedingly difficult to define its "national interest." Foreign policy in a Republican administration should refocus the country on key priorities: building a military ready to ensure American power, coping with rogue regimes, and managing Beijing and Moscow. Above all, the next president must be comfortable with America's special role as the world's leader.
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Campaign 2000: A Republican Foreign Policy
Robert B. Zoellick
Today, America's economic vitality and military strength are unparalleled. America is at the hub of a changing economic world and must ambitiously promote open competition among regions. But the last century proved that economics alone does not ensure peace, so America must have unquestioned military superiority as well. A Republican administration must undo the mistakes of the last eight years.
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Labor's New Internationalism
Jay Mazur
Last fall's protests at the World Trade Organization talks in Seattle made it clear that trade policy is no longer the exclusive domain of sheltered elites and corporate interests. Following the example of big business, unions are now going global -- backed by a growing worldwide consensus that freer trade must also protect human rights, the environment, and decent working conditions. The international ups strike in 1997 showed just how effective this new strategy can be.
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Rwanda in Retrospect
Alan J. Kuperman
Advocates of humanitarian intervention often claim that 5,000 U.N. troops alone could have staved off the Rwandan genocide in 1994. But a more realistic appraisal suggests that an intervention of any size would have required much more time and logistical planning than most proponents care to admit. Given the genocide's terrifying pace, even a major mission by the West could have saved only a fraction of the ultimate victims. Herewith a reassessment of the limits of intervention.
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A Farewell to Arms Inspections
Daniel Byman
The return of U.N. arms inspectors to Iraq would do more harm than good -- making a mockery of arms control and actually helping Saddam Hussein develop his doomsday arsenal over the long term. With support for threats of force flagging, a renewed, enfeebled inspection mission will find only what Saddam wants it to. He will then push to have Iraq certified as free of nonconventional arms, which would end the sanctions that keep Saddam in his box. Better an impasse than a sham.
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Iran's New Revolution
Robin Wright
In Iran today, defiant new movements are blossoming. They put the country on the cutting edge of the Islamic world on issues ranging from religious reform and cultural expression to women's rights. The theocratic regime that seized power in 1979 is unlikely to survive, but the driving force behind that revolution is prompting ordinary Iranians to go out and get what they need for themselves.
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The Second Nuclear Age
Paul Bracken
Just as Asia began asserting itself economically in the 1960s and 1970s, it now does so militarily. The rise of Asian military power ushers in a new age in which Western interference in Asia will prove far more treacherous and costly than ever. For the first time in modern history, Asia has the power to shape its future -- for better or worse.
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The Road From Serfdom: Amartya Sen Argues that Growth Is Not Enough
Richard N. Cooper
In his new book, Amartya Sen adds a moral dimension to development economics that gives broader meaning to the term "quality of life."
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The Dreamer: The World According to Gorbachev
Jack F. Matlock, Jr.
With facts and a touch of fiction, Mikhail Gorbachev recounts the breakup of the Soviet Union and warns the West not to mangle the post-Cold War world.
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Strange Bedfellows: Mandela, de Klerk, and the New South Africa
Mark Gevisser
The authorized biography of the saintly Nelson Mandela and the autobiography of the bitter F. W. de Klerk highlight the birth pains of the new South Africa.
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A Chance for Peace in Afghanistan: The Taliban's Days Are Numbered
Peter Tomsen
Ahmed Rashid has it wrong. The Taliban's days are, mercifully, numbered.
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A Poor Case for Quitting: Mistaking Incompetence for Interventionism
Chester A. Crocker
Joseph Nye, Jr., and Edward Luttwak confuse interventionism with incompetence.
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A POOR CASE FOR QUITTING
Chester A. Crocker
Joseph Nye, Jr., and Edward Luttwak confuse interventionism with incompetence.
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Enough is Enough
Sergio Vieira De Mello
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Asian Bulge
Max Baucus
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Seattle Plan
Pamela S. Falk
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Clearing up Kosovo
Morton Abramowitz
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Safe Keeing
Brent Scowcroft
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