Will Canada Unravel? Plotting a Map if Quebec Secedes

Charles F. Doran

From Foreign Affairs, September/October 1996

Article preview: first 500 of 4,294 words total.

Summary:  A mere 53,000 voters defeated proposed Quebec secession last October. While Francophones and some fed-up Canadians would love a separation, both assume the rest of Canada will remain whole. But federalism would be weakened, and four provinces would be geographically severed. Montrealers and native peoples within Quebec might demand independence. Although it prefers a united Canada, the United States must prepare a plan for affiliation with Canadian fragments, midway between a treaty and statehood. Balkanization may not be restricted to Eastern Europe.

Charles F. Doran is Andrew W. Mellon Professor of International Relations at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University.

Ever-louder rumblings north of the border should not be dismissed as another Canadian nonevent. Potentially, they portend much greater consequences for American interests than many nationalist breakups around the world. Canada's dilemma, typically put, is the separation of Quebec. At least since the abortive rebellions of 1837-38, Quebecers seemingly have been revolting against Canada. The question has always been, "Will Quebec separate?" After a recent referendum in Quebec almost answered yes, Canadians have begun to ask other questions in more heated tones, such as, "Should Quebec be partitioned?" "For other Francophones and the rest of us," wrote Diane Francis, editor of The Financial Post, "[partition of Quebec] would rid this country of troublemakers who do not value Canada or its citizenship and who play fast and loose with the rule of law and minority rights." Quebecers, for their part, call partition dangerous, nonviable, undemocratic, and contrary to law. They regard it as a precedent that would threaten the geopolitical balance in North America. So the tensions increase.

From the perspective of the United States, the right question is: What would follow separation? This deeper question contemplates a Canada that may not only split into two parts -- Quebec and the rest of Canada -- but that may continue to fragment. This view of the problem is much broader, and it holds consequences in political, economic, and security terms that immediately draw the United States into a far more dramatic set of developments. Continuing fragmentation potentially involves powers outside North America in special treaties and coalitions. What starts as simple secession, or breakup, could end in a complex process of redefining the entire Canadian polity, rooted in nationalist stresses that turn out not to be restricted to former communist states and poor Third World countries but to affect all multiethnic states in the post-Cold War order. This more complicated picture of Quebec's separation and its consequences may be described as a worst-case scenario. But is the thesis of continuing Canadian fragmentation after Quebec's secession plausible? Could North America unravel? The United States must take the possibility seriously enough to draw up plans for a form of supranational affiliation with the remnants of Canada.

Ottawa, regardless of the party in power, has always argued that its problems of unity are manageable. While its strategy for dealing with Quebec has changed over time, it remains confident that the province can be convinced to remain in the confederation. Moreover, Ottawa is similarly confident that if Quebec were to separate, the rest of Canada would remain united. The principal argument is that the problem is Quebec's incessant demands for more autonomy. If these demands are met, separation will be thwarted. If they cannot be met and Quebec does secede, English-speaking Canada will nonetheless remain unified because the source of the difficulties would be gone. The remainder of Canada could get down to the serious business of living together.

Somewhat ironically, separatist Quebec agrees with Ottawa on this interpretation. Jacques Parizeau, ...

End of preview: first 500 of 4,294 words total.