Arafat's Police State

Amos Perlmutter

From Foreign Affairs, July/August 1994

Summary:  Arafat has no intention of letting democracy blossom in Gaza or Jericho. Elections would only bring Islamic fundamentalists to power.

Amos Perlmutter is Professor of Political Science at American University and Editor of The Journal of Strategic Studies.

The projected Gaza-Jericho autonomy is only the beginning of the road for the Palestinians, not an end in itself. Amid the increased Israeli-Palestinian violence and the obstacles remaining after Israel withdraws from Gaza and the West Bank town of Jericho, a Palestinian state is being created. The symbols and trappings and the political and economic arrangements could loosely identify Gaza as the first Palestinian state, as soon as Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) leader Yasir Arafat establishes his administration in Jericho, a task that could be accomplished by early this summer.

The immediate question that arises, then, is what will be the nature of a future Palestinian state. Will it be democratic, pluralistic, secular and stable, or yet another version of Arab regimes and states that have characterized and dominated the region for the past six or seven decades?

Regrettably, a Palestinian state ruled by Arafat and his PLO cronies will likely be authoritarian, noninclusive and undemocratic. Such a state will be controlled by Arafat?s security services, which will do all that is necessary to keep themselves in power. This scenario will no doubt cheer Israeli settlers and Palestinian radicals who have vehemently and violently opposed the Israeli-PLO agreement. But it does not augur well for political pluralism, participation and, above all, institutionalization, that is, the creation of a democratic and stable Palestinian state.

A MODEL FOR TROUBLE

Palestine is on the road to becoming what Samuel Huntington has defined as a praetorian state. Such states have a low level of political institutionalization and a fractured political structure in a unstable political climate. They are not necessarily military-dominated but are rigid, top-heavy and lack a viable middle class. For such states, political stability and a democratic or even pluralistic regime are unachievable.

Gaza and to a lesser extent the West Bank have no political competition and no administrative structure to satisfy the pent-up political demands of a population that has lived under Egyptian, Jordanian or Israeli occupation since 1948. Social classes are fragmented and incapable of unified political action other than resistance, violence, defiance and terrorism.

Unfortunately, the only cohesive political force in Gaza is the anti-secular, radical Muslim Hamas movement. The only effectively organized political party is a small communist party. Professional associations of engineers, lawyers, doctors, journalists and academics provide only a skeleton crew for the creation or development of complex, cohesive and competitive political parties.

For a stable, Western-style democratic regime to succeed, a broad and cohesive middle class with the capacity for political mobilization is needed. Neither Gaza nor the West Bank meet this condition. The West Bank has a small, articulate and vocal middle class, but it remains essentially a traditional society, which is one reason the fundamentalists there have had such success. In Gaza, this low level of institutionalization is understandable, given the long history of occupation, but makes the prospects for stability and democracy less promising.

ARAFAT?S SOLDIERS

When Arafat and the PLO move into their new capital in Jericho, marking the first phase of Palestinian autonomy, it will be a sharp contrast for them, transplanted from the Mediterranean city of Tunis to this dusty city, a wretched village in the Judaean desert that has remained undeveloped since 1949, when the Jordanians occupied the West Bank and set it up as a refugee camp among the archeological digs of the walls of Jericho. The bleak setting is an apt metaphor for Arafat?s prospects in taking over the rule of Jericho, Gaza and Khan Yunis, the three municipalities that make up the autonomy.