The Next Great Arms Race

Michael T. Klare

From Foreign Affairs, Summer 1993

Article preview: first 500 of 5,196 words total.

Summary:  Fueled by dramatic economic growth, the nations of East and Southeast Asia are engaged in an arms race that shows every sign of accelerating. These countries are importing not only complex weapon systems but, more important, the technology with which to manufacture them. Since longstanding territorial and border disputes remain (most notably in the South China Sea) and the twin threats of China and Japan loom large, the potential for conflict is great. Without arms control and regional security measures, the Pacific Rim could one day be the site of a major conflagration.

DANGER ON THE PACIFIC RIM

Despite the end of the Cold War--perhaps because of it--the nations of East and Southeast Asia are engaged in accelerating arms races with significant implications for regional and international security. The recent sale of American F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan and Russian Su-27 fighter jets to China are part of a larger arms acquisition effort as both countries also upgrade their own military production capabilities. Other countries in the region--Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the two Koreas--are also involved in major arms acquisition programs and the development of high-tech military industries. Although these nations have generally managed to avoid direct combat with one another since the Vietnam War (the short border conflict between China and Vietnam in 1979 being the sole exception), continuing tension in Korea and a number of territorial disputes in the South China Sea area could provide the sparks to ignite a regional conflagration.

The acceleration of regional arms races is made more worrisome by the absence of any regional arms control talks, such as those now under way in the Middle East, and by the growing technological prowess of the leading Asian powers. While most of the NATO and former Warsaw Pact countries are reducing their military expenditures and slowing the development of new weapons, many East Asian countries are raising their military outlays--in some cases by a significant percentage--and investing in the procurement of modern munitions. Even more significant, many of these countries are developing domestic arms industries that are expected to compete on equal terms with those of the more advanced Western countries in the early years of the 21st century.

It is the emphasis on technology imports that sets the East Asian arms races apart from those in the Third World. While the nations of Africa, Latin America and the Middle East tend to import finished weapons systems from their major suppliers, the Pacific Rim countries generally seek the technology with which to manufacture arms of their own. Hence Taiwan will produce and assemble many F-16 components while it proceeds with development of its Indigenous Defensive Fighter and a domestic variant of the Patriot missile. China seeks foreign technology to upgrade its J-7 and J-8 fighter planes and is negotiating with the Russians for licensed manufacture of the MiG-31. Japan produces the F-15 under license from McDonnell-Douglas and is proceeding with codevelopment (with the United States) of its Fighter Support Experimental. South Korea has begun domestic production of the F-16 and manufactures many of its other combat systems.

In addition to basic combat gear, the Pacific Rim nations also manufacture many of the communications, electronics and surveillance systems used by their militaries. Drawing on their increasingly sophisticated civilian industries, countries such as Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea are poised to become major suppliers of these systems in the late 1990s and early 21st century. Advanced electronics played a decisive role in the allied victory in Operation Desert Storm, and the ability to produce such systems ...

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