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November/December 1993
Vol 72, Number 5 << Previous: Sept/Oct 1993 | Next: Jan/Feb 1994 >> FIND FOREIGN AFFAIRS ON A NEWSSTAND NEAR YOU
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The Future of the Islamic Movement
Richard W. Bulliet
The militant Islamic movement, threatening the PLO's power base and Israel's security, forced the parties to end their enduring and bloody stalemate. But now that Israel and the PLO have shaken hands, disparate Islamic groups from Algeria to Lebanon will calculate for themselves the accord's costs and benefits. If the Islamic movement could finally make Israel and the PLO come to terms, can it now break a fragile peace?
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Is Jordan Doomed?
Lawrence Tal
The Israeli-PLO peace accord has reignited Jordan's historical identity crisis. King Hussein, the Hashemite ruler of a large Palestinian population, must walk a fine line. Native Jordanians, his bedrock support, fear becoming a minority in their own land. With the prospect of a new Palestinian state, they may want Jordan's Palestinians to choose allegiance. By renouncing the Palestinians, however, the king could lose the economic base he needs to maintain Jordan's stability. To which of his competing constituencies Hussein tilts will determine his kingdom's future.
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The Rise of China
Nicholas D. Kristof
If its economic growth continues, the rise of China will be the most important change in the global economic, political and military balance of the next century. This growth will be accompanied by environmental degradation, an activist foreign policy, and even military adventures. Yet the pervasive tendency to blame China, and the current regime in particular, is misplaced. Most of China's actions are perfectly understandable attempts by a rising power to expand its influence abroad.
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The Asianization of Asia
Yoichi Funabashi
Expanding economic and media links are giving Asia what Asia historically could never give itself: a distinctly "Asian" identity. Far from a reaction to some Western impulse-colonialism or superpower imposition-the Asian consciousness is uniquely homegrown. It is animated by workaday pragmatism, the awakenings of a flourishing middle class and the moxie of technocrats. Though rifts in the region still exist, this new mindset gives Asians the confidence that-from human rights to security to political issues-they can fend for themselves.
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South Africa's Future Foreign Policy
Nelson Mandela
The foreign policy of a democratic South Africa will emphasize human rights and democracy. It will recognize that our destiny lies with Africa, and southern Africa in particular, but will cooperate in the sphere, not dominate it. Above all, we will try to help end the terrible economic crisis that is afflicting our country and integrate ourselves into the global economy.
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Why South Africa Gave Up the Bomb
J. W. de Villiers, Roger Jardine, Mitchell Reiss
South Africa stands as the world's first case of nuclear rollback. But the circumstances that led Pretoria to develop the bomb, the size and capability of its arsenal, who controlled it, and why the nation eventually gave it up have, until now, been largely obscured. Lingering questions about the past raise concerns about South Africa's nuclear future. Foremost among these are Pretoria's intentions for its valuable store of highly enriched uranium and what will be the ANC's nuclear agenda.
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The Challenges to Turkey
Eric Rouleau
Turkey's historical knack for melding contradictions continues. Kemal Atatürk, founder of the modern republic, left a legacy that Turks are actively adapting. Relative isolationism is giving way to rising regional power. Secular democracy has let Islam back out of the bottle. And dogmatic homogeneity is being usurped by growing cultural awareness of, and even fondness for, the Ottoman past. Turks are becoming more Turkish again, and old taboos are falling one by one.
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Is Pinochet the Model?
Angelo M. Codevilla
The "Pinochet model," a potent mixture of authoritarianism and liberal economic reform, is sold as the elixir to nearly any country ailing under socialist transition. But the years of improvisation by Chile's reformers actually leave scant recipe to follow. The secret of Chile's turnabout, if any can be found, was simply the inspiration to shrink the state. Any country can do it, without a caudillo in charge.
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The Wrath of Ages: Nationalism's Primordial Roots
Conor Cruise O'Brien
Nationalism is not a modern, nineteenth-century phenomenon, author William Pfaff's claims to the contrary. Rather, it has deep, primordial roots. It will neither go away nor sober up into a sane "liberal" variety. Our hatreds are here to stay.
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Risking the American Dream: Pointing Fingers Is Easier than Plotting Courses
Felix G. Rohatyn
The United States as a Third World country? Geostrategist Edward Luttwak sketches the awful specter, casting shadows of blame over the public-private financial system and public schools. But his solutions comprise a populist critique rather than a plausible strategy.
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If Not Civilizations, What? Samuel Huntington Responds to His Critics
Samuel P. Huntington
It's all very well to point to scattered events that the "civilizations" paradigm does not explain. But there is still no better framework with which to understand the post-Cold War world.
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Recent Books on International Relations
Africa
Asia and Pacific
Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Republics
Middle East
The United States
Western Europe
Western Hemisphere
Economic, Social, and Environmental
Military, Scientific, and Technological
Political and Legal
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