America's "New Thinking"

Daniel Yankelovich and Richard Smoke

From Foreign Affairs, Fall 1988

Article preview: first 500 of 5,530 words total.

Summary:  Reviews recent US public opinion poll evidence on relations with USSR and security issues, finding a cautious attitude, stressing verification and other means of testing Soviet 'good faith'. Americans believe that (1) Gorbachev seeks "to change... the very character of the Soviet Union" (2) the nuclear threat from a (hypothetical) terrorist group or Third World power is greater than that from the USSR (3) today's greatest challenges (including pollution, terrorism, over-population and trade) "are no longer East-West in nature but global".

Daniel Yankelovich is President of The Public Agenda Foundation and Chairman of The Daniel Yankelovich Group, Inc. Richard Smoke is Research Director of the Center for Foreign Policy Development and Professor of Political Science, both at Brown University. The authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions of Cyrus Vance, Chairman of The Public Agenda Foundation, and Howard Swearer, President of Brown University and Chairman of the PAF/Brown joint project referred to in this article.

The American public is willing to experiment with winding down the cold war. But this "new thinking" in America differs in at least one important respect from Mikhail Gorbachev?s "new thinking" about Soviet-American relations. Gorbachev seems to want to make changes swiftly. Americans insist upon proceeding cautiously, testing Soviet good faith at each step. The average American wants to explore new possibilities but cannot easily brush aside forty years of hostility and mistrust. The attitudes of the American public have been tempered by disappointment with the détente of the 1970s. The public feels that the Soviets took advantage of the United States, and does not want to be "tricked" again.

Without sensitive management of the superpower relationship from both sides, a disjunction could open up between these differing tempos that could create difficulties for years to come. No new American administration, Republican or Democratic, will want to nor can afford to move more rapidly than the American public. But public attitudes are shifting too. Despite ambivalences, a striking pattern of change in public attitudes is radically altering the boundaries within which U.S.-Soviet policies can be shaped in the next few years.

II

The current attitude of Americans toward the Soviet Union is different from anything we have seen in forty years. It is not the troubled mood of recent years, of worry about nuclear war. It is not the mood of the beginning of this decade, when Americans assertively endorsed a strong military buildup. It is not the mood of the early 1970s, when Americans were overly optimistic about the possibilities of détente. Nor is it the cold war mood of the 1950s and early 1960s. The majority of Americans are now interested in neither a further military buildup nor instant friendship.

The current mood can be characterized as a wary readiness. It is readiness of a special kind: distinctly hopeful yet cautious. The public is hopeful that far-reaching change?perhaps even historic, fundamental change?in relations with the U.S.S.R. is in the offing. The nation is ready to embrace the prospect of fundamental change as time passes, if it meets America?s needs. But the "if" is a big one, keenly felt. The country remains suspicious and mistrustful of the Soviets. If change proves a trap, Americans will be unsurprised; they are equally ready to embrace a new round of strenuous global competition.

This duality is easily misunderstood. But on close inspection it proves to be a rational, hard-headed stance upon which a new national consensus can be firmly built. Because the change is so far-reaching, it is desirable to document it as carefully as possible. Fortunately the evidence is exceptionally abundant this year. Not one but two projects of unusual scope and depth have explored American attitudes on this subject in the past year, in addition to a variety of regular polls.

One project is "Americans Talk Security" (ATS), an ongoing series of 12 bipartisan surveys of registered voters on national security issues conducted on a rotating basis by ...

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