The Race to Control Nuclear Arms

Paul Doty, Albert Carnesale and Michael Nacht

From Foreign Affairs, October 1976

Article preview: first 500 of 5,599 words total.

Summary:  As the nuclear age lengthens and the opportunity for viewing it in perspective grows, its essential features seem increasingly related to successive eight-year American presidential administrations. Measures to control nuclear weapons have been seriously considered in each of the first four postwar "octades," and there has been an acceleration in the number of agreements reached-most notably in limiting nuclear tests, slowing nuclear proliferation, restraining the quantitative growth of the Soviet and American nuclear arsenals, and restricting defenses against nuclear weapons.

Paul Doty, Albert Carnesale and Michael Nacht are, respectively Director, Associate Director and Assistant Director of the Program for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University.

As the nuclear age lengthens and the opportunity for viewing it in perspective grows, its essential features seem increasingly related to successive eight-year American presidential administrations. Measures to control nuclear weapons have been seriously considered in each of the first four postwar "octades," and there has been an acceleration in the number of agreements reached-most notably in limiting nuclear tests, slowing nuclear proliferation, restraining the quantitative growth of the Soviet and American nuclear arsenals, and restricting defenses against nuclear weapons.

Yet, as the nuclear age enters its fifth octade, the race to control strategic arms is being lost. Numerous obstacles have arisen to block further progress in the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT), thereby creating the danger of a new escalation in "vertical" arms proliferation. And the spread of nuclear weapons to other countries-"horizontal" proliferation-appears to have been rekindled, attributed by some to the stagnation of SALT. Moreover, new weapons systems likely to be deployed within the next few years are certain to exacerbate the arms control problem, for the already shaky SALT process appears inadequate to the task of bringing them under control. Clearly, a major change in our approach to arms control is necessary-one that addresses more decisively and more urgently the interrelated problems of vertical and horizontal proliferation.

The present commitment to joint Soviet-American negotiations to preserve the nuclear balance at progressively lower numerical levels of armaments is wise and prudent, but it is not the only course. If this approach does not produce meaningful limitations and reductions, and if it means the neglect of the growing threat of horizontal proliferation, then it is possible that a reversion to non-negotiated management of nuclear forces and unilateral initiatives offers more hope of restraint than the deceptive pursuit of "arms control" that does not bring control.

II

Each of the four postwar presidential administrations has left its distinctive imprint on the nuclear age. The Roosevelt-Truman years, 1945-1952, the first octade of the nuclear age, comprised the development period of nuclear weaponry, stretching from the first explosion in 1945 to the thousand-fold greater yield of the first thermonuclear device in 1952. At the outset, Secretary of War Henry Stimson saw relations with Russia being "dominated by the atomic bomb" but no agreement was reached on mutual management of the new force. Instead, the cold war became dominant. In 1952, the United Kingdom became the third member of the nuclear club.

The Eisenhower octade, 1953-1960, saw the full flowering of nuclear weapons systems. Both sides developed thermonuclear weapons and built large bomber forces for their delivery. With the United States in the lead, massive retaliation became its official strategic doctrine. Meanwhile, planning shifted to second-strike forces, ballistic missiles were born, and the octade closed with the deployment of the first Polaris submarine. American and Soviet arms control plans became more realistic and showed some convergence, but fell short of agreement. In 1960, France exploded her first atomic bomb.

The Kennedy-Johnson octade, 1961-1968, saw the completion by the United States of ...

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